Alachua County Primary Predictions – 2016

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Polls close tomorrow, Tuesday August 30th at 7 PM. If you haven’t voted already please do. You can find your polling location here and my recommendations here.

My predictions:

  • Turnout will be ~23% (for Dems).
  • Hutch, Roy, Barton and Amendment 4 will win in landslides.
  • Byerly and Darnell will win with ~55%.
  • Murphy and Bullard (HD-10) will win decidedly.

Closed Democratic Primary for County Commissioners and Sheriff:

We’re on track for a turnout in the low 20’s. We might break 25% if there’s a major push for turnout on election day.

Dem votes as of 8/28
Voted Early 6202
Voted By Mail 7071
At the Polls 0
Total 13273
Turnout so far 15.41%

Unlikely voters, those who have voted in 0 of 3 or 1 of 3 previous primaries are making up less than 30% of the vote. Note that this doesn’t take into account the newly registered who didn’t have an opportunity to vote in previous elections. There’s a lot of people in Gainesville who are young and/or registered for the first time due to the presidential primary and are voting for the first time during this election cycle. If there was an anti-incumbent surge I’d expect a higher vote share from unlikely voters.

Primary Voting Total People
0 of 3 1,096 8.26%
1 of 3 2,833 21.34%
2 of 3 2,874 21.65%
3 of 3 6,470 48.75%
Total People 13,273

There have been major efforts to turnout the African-American vote the previous Sunday and this past Saturday. The payoff has been good for unlikely voters but the overall effect has been small. African-Americans make up a disproportionately higher share of unlikely voters so far but the total vote share is still low. It seems that the majority of people early voting were regular voters. In fact, the vote share of African-Americans has gone down from 24.5% on Tuesday (8/23) to 22.8% by Sunday (8/28). The total vote share of African-Americans is likely to go down further unless there’s a massive turnout on Tuesday.

Primary Voting
Race/Ethnicity: Voting as of 8/28/16
African American % Asian % Caucasian %
0 of 3 419 38.23 15 1.37 616 56.2
1 of 3 657 23.19 56 1.98 2,000 70.6
2 of 3 608 21.16 29 1.01 2,154 74.95
3 of 3 1,342 20.74 37 0.57 4,996 77.22
Total People 3,026 22.8 137 1.03 9,766 73.58
Primary Voting
Race/Ethnicity: Voting as of 8/28/16
Hispanic % Native American % Total People
0 of 3 41 3.74 4 0.36 1,096 8.26%
1 of 3 112 3.95 8 0.28 2,833 21.34%
2 of 3 67 2.33 13 0.45 2,874 21.65%
3 of 3 82 1.27 12 0.19 6,470 48.75%
Total People 302 2.28 37 0.28 13,273

The early voters so far are the people who put these incumbents into office to begin with. I expect ~6,500 people to vote at the polls on Tuesday. They are likely to be younger and more diverse then those who have already voted; but there would have to be a lot of them to make a difference at this point considering the numbers.


Alachua County School Board:

This race is seeing a lot of turnout with Republicans and likely voters. For a winning Kinsey coalition there should be a lot of young, African-American, and unlikely voters as well as a high Republican turnout.

All County Voters as of 8/29
Voted Early 8235
Voted By Mail 12195
At the Polls 0
Total 20430
Turnout so far 11.24%

The vote share of African-Americans drops to less than 16% for the School Board but the number of unlikely voters is still disproportionately higher, especially for those who have not voted in any of the last three primaries.

Primary Voting
Race/Ethnicity: Voting as of 8/28/16
African American % Asian % Caucasian %
0 of 3 505 25.12 47 2.34 1,361 67.71
1 of 3 707 17.02 93 2.24 3,163 76.16
2 of 3 643 14.05 51 1.11 3,745 81.84
3 of 3 1,385 14.29 56 0.58 8,116 83.75
Total People 3,240 15.86 247 1.21 16,385 80.2
Primary Voting
Race/Ethnicity: Voting as of 8/28/16
Hispanic % Native American % Total People
0 of 3 87 4.33 7 0.35 2,010 9.84%
1 of 3 178 4.29 12 0.29 4,153 20.33%
2 of 3 111 2.43 23 0.5 4,576 22.40%
3 of 3 115 1.19 18 0.19 9,691 47.44%
Total People 491 2.4 60 0.29 20,430

The vote share of Republicans, who have their own primary for HD-21 right now, is 27.5%. Even if every non Democrat voted for Kinsey (which they’re not) it wouldn’t be enough to carry a winning coalition.

Primary Voting
Party: Voting as of 8/28/16
Democrats % Green % Libertarian %
0 of 3 1,096 54.53 2 0.1 12 0.6
1 of 3 2,833 68.22 6 0.14 12 0.29
2 of 3 2,874 62.81 2 0.04 11 0.24
3 of 3 6,470 66.76 2 0.02 4 0.04
Total People 13,273 64.97 12 0.06 39 0.19
Primary Voting
Party: Voting as of 8/28/16
Other % Republicans % Unaffiliated %
0 of 3 60 2.99 308 15.32 532 26.47
1 of 3 52 1.25 873 21.02 377 9.08
2 of 3 50 1.09 1,394 30.46 245 5.35
3 of 3 24 0.25 3,047 31.44 144 1.49
Total People 186 0.91 5,622 27.52 1,298 6.35

The millennial vote (those under 35) hasn’t turned out in large numbers yet. They do make up a disproportionate share of first time primary and unlikely voters. A phenomenon that’s likely exaggerated due to many of them recently registering to vote for the first time. People over 65 make up just under half of the votes cast so far. This is likely going to go down on election day but the trend will most likely hold. Old people vote much, much more often than young people especially in non-presidential elections.

Primary Voting 18 to 24 % 25 to 34 % 35 to 49 %
0 of 3 198 9.85 301 14.98 404 20.1
1 of 3 354 8.52 520 12.52 689 16.59
2 of 3 105 2.29 264 5.77 619 13.53
3 of 3 44 0.45 195 2.01 711 7.34
Total People 701 3.43 1,280 6.27 2,423 11.86
Primary Voting 50 to 64 % 65+ % Total People
0 of 3 581 28.91 523 26.02 2,010
1 of 3 1,198 28.85 1,392 33.52 4,153
2 of 3 1,452 31.73 2,136 46.68 4,576
3 of 3 2,708 27.94 6,033 62.25 9,691
Total People 5,939 29.07 10,084 49.36 20,430

I know all the campaigns are going to be pulling out all the stops until polls close; but Kinsey and Thorpe have an uphill battle ahead of them.

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